I agree with the arguments here, and yet - I find it depressing that the conversation seems to be about winning the election by changing the rules, even if it's an objectively good rule change. Call me old-fashioned, but I always believed the purpose of an electoral democracy was to gain the voters' consent by changing their minds through word and deed.
Ultimately we wouldn't be having this conversation if Reform were not on 30% of the vote. Is your plan to safeguard the future to have a system where a sizeable minority of voters are essentially locked out of representation in government in perpetuity, growing evermore resentful at their deliberate marginalisation? Ultimately we will have to address these people's concerns - NOT through agreeing with them, of course, but by demonstrating through reasoned argument and effective government that there is a better way.
Hi Alex and thanks for your excellent comment. I agree with you on your first point - yes it is rather depressing and unsatisfactory to be trying to stop Farage this way rather than by reasoned persuasion and trying to address his supporters’ concerns. If I’m being negative I’d say it just won’t work, in the short term at least, to try and woo reform voters away so this is the only way to stop him in 2029. See how effective Starmer’s rather ham-fisted attempts to placate Reform voters have worked out. If I’m even more negative you might say you’ll not persuade many of them - Jonathan Swift said, “reasoning will never make a man correct an ill opinion, which by reasoning he never acquired”.
On your second point - the danger and unfairness of effectively disenfranchising maybe 30% of the population - yes again a good point and it’s the issue many European countries currently have. Maybe gradually (over several years) the situation resolves - the main parties do listen to the concerns and e.g toughen up their immigration policies, as is happening in Europe (and here), so far right support slowly declines. Ultimately it is hoped far right parties modify policies so the mainstream will work with them or voters eventually realise they need to vote for a party that the majority will work with. The downside scenario is that the extreme party reaches more than 50% in which case they get in, which is perhaps the next point you’d make - locking someone out unfairly risks making them increasingly popular. It’s not simple I agree.
From what I can see of the Reform people on Substack (who I compulsively hate-read), they appear scared shitless by the prospect of a "uniparty stitch-up". Despite the party not that long ago having keenly supported PR themselves...
That’s interesting. Hopefully their fears are realised! I didn’t go into it because the piece was already too long but the conservatives are in an interesting position. On current projections they do very badly under first past the post and would be better off supporting PR.! whether they do or not is another matter
Spot on Jonathan. Changing the electoral system to some form of EVC/PR is now urgent. FPTP cannot work in a multi party system - as we have seen in the 2024 GE and this month’s council elections it produces grotesquely unfair outcomes.
Thanks Ken. Yes i whole-heartedly agree. One also hopes, perhaps vainly, that the need for coalition will produce a calmer more mature consensual style of politics into our Parliament.
I agree with the arguments here, and yet - I find it depressing that the conversation seems to be about winning the election by changing the rules, even if it's an objectively good rule change. Call me old-fashioned, but I always believed the purpose of an electoral democracy was to gain the voters' consent by changing their minds through word and deed.
Ultimately we wouldn't be having this conversation if Reform were not on 30% of the vote. Is your plan to safeguard the future to have a system where a sizeable minority of voters are essentially locked out of representation in government in perpetuity, growing evermore resentful at their deliberate marginalisation? Ultimately we will have to address these people's concerns - NOT through agreeing with them, of course, but by demonstrating through reasoned argument and effective government that there is a better way.
Hi Alex and thanks for your excellent comment. I agree with you on your first point - yes it is rather depressing and unsatisfactory to be trying to stop Farage this way rather than by reasoned persuasion and trying to address his supporters’ concerns. If I’m being negative I’d say it just won’t work, in the short term at least, to try and woo reform voters away so this is the only way to stop him in 2029. See how effective Starmer’s rather ham-fisted attempts to placate Reform voters have worked out. If I’m even more negative you might say you’ll not persuade many of them - Jonathan Swift said, “reasoning will never make a man correct an ill opinion, which by reasoning he never acquired”.
On your second point - the danger and unfairness of effectively disenfranchising maybe 30% of the population - yes again a good point and it’s the issue many European countries currently have. Maybe gradually (over several years) the situation resolves - the main parties do listen to the concerns and e.g toughen up their immigration policies, as is happening in Europe (and here), so far right support slowly declines. Ultimately it is hoped far right parties modify policies so the mainstream will work with them or voters eventually realise they need to vote for a party that the majority will work with. The downside scenario is that the extreme party reaches more than 50% in which case they get in, which is perhaps the next point you’d make - locking someone out unfairly risks making them increasingly popular. It’s not simple I agree.
From what I can see of the Reform people on Substack (who I compulsively hate-read), they appear scared shitless by the prospect of a "uniparty stitch-up". Despite the party not that long ago having keenly supported PR themselves...
That’s interesting. Hopefully their fears are realised! I didn’t go into it because the piece was already too long but the conservatives are in an interesting position. On current projections they do very badly under first past the post and would be better off supporting PR.! whether they do or not is another matter
Spot on Jonathan. Changing the electoral system to some form of EVC/PR is now urgent. FPTP cannot work in a multi party system - as we have seen in the 2024 GE and this month’s council elections it produces grotesquely unfair outcomes.
Thanks Ken. Yes i whole-heartedly agree. One also hopes, perhaps vainly, that the need for coalition will produce a calmer more mature consensual style of politics into our Parliament.